You can vote just once (this year!). The current results of this cross-season poll (after removing duplicates) reveal that fans of David Archuleta are well-networked and telling one another to vote here. Thank you, everyone, for voting here!
Remember that the VoteFair.org website (look in the upper right corner) is ready to calculate poll, survey, and election results free for you! After you create your poll/election, put the supplied link into your Facebook or MySpace page or your organization's website so that visitors or members can vote conveniently. If you haven't already read it, please read the What's going on in the 2008 Presidential elections? commentary on the VoteFair News page. It reveals what news story currently is not being covered, yet it's likely to become a hot news story.
Season 7 commentary
Congratulations, David Cook!The final VoteFair poll results indicated that David Archuleta was slightly more popular than David Cook, so what happened? Having the phone lines open for four hours surely limited the late-night and after-midnight calls from younger fans. David Archuleta has more young fans than David Cook, so this gave an advantage to older fans, and therefore David Cook. This alone could account for the surprise result. The VoteFair poll cannot predict this kind of surprise because this poll does not have the same conditions—especially limited hours and multiple votes—that characterize the official voting. These differences easily account for the result differences. Also remember that this was a close race in both the official results and the VoteFair poll. When a race is close, anything can happen.
Answering a visitor's questionA visitor here has asked an excellent question: “I don't fully understand how results are tallied for the different voting methods. Why, for instance, in the AI poll, is David A ranked 2nd when he has so many more votes than David C? AI allows voting as many times as one wants, and whoever has the most votes wins. I guess I just don't get the results.” Let's compare these three different ways of voting:
Using the results from last week's poll, here are the “plurality” vote counts using just the first choice from each “order-of-preference” ballot:
On the surface it appears that David Archuleta is the most popular. This belief is reinforced by the fact that all U.S. elections presume that the person with the most first-choice votes deserves to be the “winner”. Yet VoteFair ranking calculates these results:
Why is David Cook ranked first even though he has fewer first-choice votes than either David Archuleta or Jason Castro? Look in the Data and Calculation Summary section of the results, and you will see that, based on 3,109 ballots (from 3,109 voters), here are the relevant comparisons:
These numbers reveal that more voters prefer David Cook over David Archuleta, and that more voters prefer David Cook over Jason Castro. This is why VoteFair ranking indicates that David Cook is actually the most popular—in this poll. How can this be? The important point is that “order-of-preference” ballots reveal whether the voter prefers David Cook or David Archuleta even when the voter's first choice is Jason Castro or Syesha Mercado. Similarly, when a voter indicates a first choice of David Archuleta or Syesha Mercado, the voter also indicates whether they prefer David Cook or Jason Castro. In other words, VoteFair ranking takes into account important information that first-choice-only counts completely ignore. Hopefully it's now apparent why last week David Cook was indicated here as a possible early elimination. He may actually be the most popular (in that week), yet he is next-to-last based on first-choice-only votes (in this poll). Of course the official AI vote counts are different because they allow a voter to vote many times. Some people believe that the results can still be fair as long as voters also put in some votes for their second-favorite and maybe their third-favorite. Unfortunately that's not a valid belief. In fact, even if, somehow, everyone put in three votes for their favorite, two votes for their second-favorite, and one vote for their third-favorite (and no votes for their least favorite), the results would not always be fair. In fact this result is calculated and appears under the name “Borda count”, and in this case the Borda-count method mistakenly suggests that David Archuleta is most popular (in this recent poll result).
Why was Michael Johns eliminated early?Unlike the other seven singers, Michael Johns did not receive a concentration of first-choice votes from an established large fan base willing to continuously dial his phone number. That happened because, relatively speaking, he does not appeal to any ready-made, well-defined, and well-networked fan base. In contrast, keeping in mind that averages do not apply to individuals, consider that rock-music fans would tend to concentrate votes on David Cook, country-music fans would tend to concentrate votes on Kristy Lee Cook, African Americans would tend to concentrate votes on Syesha Mercado, female pre-teens and teens would tend to concentrate votes on Jason Castro and David Archuleta, fans of female musicians would tend to concentrate votes on Brooke White (as the most popular female singer), conservative adults would tend to concentrate votes on David Archuleta and Brooke White, and rebellious teenagers and vocal-quality-conscious musicians would tend to concentrate votes on Carly Smithson. Why didn't the previous week's VoteFair poll predict his early elimination? Because in this poll each voter votes only once, whereas the official voting allows dedicated fans to vote as many times as the phone system can handle. Note that vote concentration is the flip side of vote splitting. |
This table summarizes the VoteFair poll results. To view any week's poll rankings and details, click the link(s) in that week's heading. Asterisks indicate cases where vote splitting or vote concentration caused a delayed elimination—in the case of Kristy Lee Cook and Syesha Mercado—or early elimination—in the case of Michael Johns.
| Photo | Contestant | Top 12 females Top 12 males |
Top 10 females Top 10 males |
Top 8 females Top 8 males |
Top 6 females Top 6 males |
Top 11 | Top 10 | Top 9 | Top 8 | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Top 3 | Top 2 | Winner |
| David Cook | 5 (m) | 5 (m) | 4 (m) | 2 (m) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Winner | |
| David Archuleta | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Runner up | |
| Syesha Mercado | 2 (f) | 3 (f) | 4 (f) | 4 (f) | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 * | 6 | 6 * | 5 * | 4 * | 3 | Out | -- | |
| Jason Castro | 3 (m) | 3 (m) | 3 (m) | 4 (m) | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Out | -- | -- | |
| Brooke White | 4 (f) | 2 (f) | 2 (f) | 1 (f) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | Out | -- | -- | -- | |
| Carly Smithson | 6 (f) | 5 (f) | 3 (f) | 2 (f) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Kristy Lee Cook | 10 (f) | 8 (f) | 6 (f) | 6 (f) | 11 * | 10 * | 9 * | 8 * | 7 * | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Michael Johns | 2 (m) | 2 (m) | 2 (m) | 3 (m) | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 * | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Ramiele Malubay | 1 (f) | 1 (f) | 1 (f) | 3 (f) | 7 | 8 | 8 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Chikezie Eze | 11 (m) | 8 (m) | 6 (m) | 6 (m) | 8 | 9 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Amanda Overmyer | 7 (f) | 10 (f) | 8 (f) | 5 (f) | 10 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| David Hernandez | 6 (m) | 4 (m) | 5 (m) | 5 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Asia'h Epperson | 3 (f) | 4 (f) | 5 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Danny Norriega | 7 (m) | 7 (m) | 7 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Kady Malloy | 8 (f) | 7 (f) | 7 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Luke Menard | 9 (m) | 9 (m) | 8 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Alaina Whitaker | 5 (f) | 6 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Robbie Carrico | 4 (m) | 6 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Alexandréa Lushington | 9 (f) | 9 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Jason Yeager | 10 (m) | 10 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Colton David Berry | 8 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Joanne Borgella | 11 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Amy Jean Davis | 12 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| Garrett Haley | 12 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
In this summary table, notice that some of the first-place winners are at or near the bottom. This demonstrates the unfairness of using (primitive) single-mark ballots. The more popular singers would have been the winners if official voting used order-of-preference ballots. (Detailed results)
| Popularity | Choice |
VoteFair ranking score |
Traditional vote count (for comparison) |
| First-most popular | Carrie Underwood (season 4) | ||
| Second-most popular | Kelly Clarkson (season 1) | ||
| Third-most popular | Jordin Sparks (season 6) | ||
| Fourth-most popular | Elliott Yamin (season 5) | ||
| Fifth-most popular | Melinda Doolittle (season 6) | ||
| Sixth-most popular | Blake Lewis (season 6) | ||
| Seventh-most popular | Clay Aiken (season 2) | ||
| Eighth-most popular | Jennifer Hudson (season 3) | ||
| Ninth-most popular | Katharine McPhee (season 5) | ||
| Tenth-most popular | Taylor Hicks (season 5) | ||
| Eleventh-most popular | Ruben Studdard (season 2) | ||
| Twelfth-most popular | Fantasia Barrino (season 3) |
In season 6, vote-splitting and vote-concentration (which is the flip-side of vote-splitting) caused the long-running delay in eliminating Sanjaya Malakar, and caused the slightly early elimination of Melinda Doolittle. (They are marked with asterisks in the table.)
In this VoteFair poll, Sanjaya was correctly identified as being the least popular every week for 8 weeks. During that time he was designated by the "vote for the worst" website and radio-show host Howard Stern as "the worst", and worthy of votes to make the show entertaining. This concentration of votes is the flip-side of vote-splitting.
As in politics, which also uses single-mark ballots, money is concentrated on a single candidate in each U.S. primary election, and if necessary money is used to temporarily back a candidate who is politically similar to the candidate who is most disliked by the biggest sources of money.
There was never any chance of Sanjaya winning. The strategy of concentrating votes in contests where only first-choice preferences are considered can work when there are lots of other contestants among whom the other voters split their votes. However, the strategy fails when there are fewer choices.
Melinda was eliminated before Blake Lewis because she and Jordin split the primitive single-mark (official) votes of the voters who preferred a female winner, while voters who preferred a male winner concentrated their votes on the same person. (If voting had been split into two-way ("pairwise") contests, Jordin would have won over Blake, and Melinda would have won over Blake.) Nevertheless, Melinda is not as popular as a first choice, and that's all that counts in single-mark-ballot voting.
The lesson? The person with the most (first-choice) votes is not necessarily the most popular, and the person with the fewest (first-choice) votes is not necessarily the least popular.
Learn more about vote splitting at Wikipedia.
(Asterisks indicate delayed or premature eliminations.)
| Contestant | Top 12 males Top 12 females |
Top 10 males Top 10 females |
Top 8 males Top 8 females |
Top 12 | Top 11 | Top 10 | Top 9 | Top 8 | Top 7 | Top 6 First week |
Top 6 Second week |
Top 4 | Top 3 | Top 2 | Winner |
| Jordin Sparks | 4-tie (f) | 3 (f) | 3 (f) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Winner |
| Blake Lewis | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Out |
| Melinda Doolittle | 2 (f) | 2 (f) | 1 (f) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 * | Out | -- |
| Lakisha Jones | 1 (f) | 1 (f) | 2 (f) | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | Out | -- | -- |
| Phil Stacey | 3 (m) | 3 (m) | 4 (m) | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | Out | -- | -- | -- |
| Chris Richardson | 4 (m) | 4 (m) | 3 (m) | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Out | -- | -- | -- |
| Sanjaya Malakar | 10 (m) | 10 (m) * | 8 (m) * | 12 * | 11 * | 10 * | 9 * | 8 * | 7 * | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Haley Scarnato | 7-tie (f) | 7 (f) | 7 (f) | 11 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Gina Glocksen | 4-tie (f) | 6 (f) | 6 (f) | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chris Sligh | 2 (m) | 2 (m) | 2 (m) | 5 | 6 | 7 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Stephanie Edwards | 6 (f) | 4 (f) | 5 (f) | 8 | 8 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brandon Rogers | 5 (m) | 7 (m) | 6 (m) | 10 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Sabrina Sloan | 3 (f) | 5 (f) | 4 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Sundance Head | 11 (m) | 5 (m) | 5 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jared Cotter | 8 (m) | 6 (m) | 7 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Antonella Barba | 11 (f) | 10 (f) | 8 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Leslie Hunt | 7-tie (f) | 8 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Nicholas Pedro | 7 (m) | 8 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Alaina Alexander | 10 (f) | 9 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| A. J. Tabaldo | 6 (m) | 9 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Nicole Tranquillo | 7-tie (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Amy Krebs | 12 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rudy Cardenas | 9 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Paul Kim | 12 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Five-season poll results based on 2,000 votes
(after repeat votes eliminated)
(detailed results)
Four-season poll results based on 6,338 votes
(after repeat votes eliminated)
(detailed results)
In season 5 there were three unfairly early eliminations. (They are marked with asterisks in the table.)
| Contestant | Top 12 females Top 12 males | Top 10 females Top 10 males | Top 8 females Top 8 males | Top 12 ranking |
Top 11 ranking |
Top 10 ranking |
Top 9 ranking |
Top 8 ranking |
Top 7 ranking |
Top 6 ranking |
Top 5 ranking |
Top 4 ranking |
Top 3 ranking |
Top 2 ranking |
Final result |
| Taylor Hicks | 1 (m) | 1 (m) | 2 (m) | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Winner |
| Katharine McPhee | 3 (f) | 1 (f) | 1 (tie) (f) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Out |
| Elliott Yamin | 4 (m) | 4 (m) | 3 (m) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 * | Out | -- |
| Chris Daughtry | 3 (m) | 2 (m) | 1 (m) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 * | Out | -- | -- |
| Paris Bennett | 1 (f) | 2 (f) | 4 (f) | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Out | -- | -- | -- |
| Kellie Pickler | 4 (f) | 4 (f) | 1 (tie) (f) | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ace Young | 2 (m) | 3 (m) | 4 (m) | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bucky Covington | 9-tie (m) | 5 (m) | 5 (m) | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mandisa | 5 (f) | 6 (f) | 3 (f) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 * | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lisa Tucker | 2 (f) | 3 (f) | 6 (f) | 7 | 8 | 10 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kevin Corvais | 6 (m) | 7 (m) | 7 (m) | 12 | 11 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Melissa McGhee | 7 | 7 (f) | 7 (f) | 11 | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Gedeon McKinney | 8 (m) | 9 (m) | 6 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ayla Brown | 6 (f) | 5 (f) | 5 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Will Makar | 5 (m) | 6 (m) | 8 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kinnik Sky | 10 (f) | 9 (f) | 8 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jose "Sway" Penala | 9-tie (m) | 10 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brenna Gethers | 12 (f) | 10 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| David Radford | 7 (m) | 8 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Heather Cox | 8 (f) | 8 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Patrick Hall | 11 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Stevie Scott | 11 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bobby Bennet | 12 (m) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Becky O'Donohue | 9 (f) | Out | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
In Season 3 Jennifer Hudson was eliminated unfairly early. There were seven contestants remaining. She and Fantasia Barrino — who was the final winner — and LaToya London were female, African-American, excellent singers. All three of these previously popular singers ended up in the "bottom three" that night. This was a classic demonstration of "vote splitting" in which the presence of similar choices reduces the votes for each of the similar choices. Its effect is well-known, but the solution — order-of-preference voting and VoteFair ranking — is only beginning to be recognized.
Remember: The person with the fewest votes is not necessarily the least popular!
As a clarification, Constantine Maroulis was not eliminated early because of vote-splitting, but rather because of a phone-system failure. (A statistical analysis of the phone-call data could have identified the time and place of the failure. This analysis also could have identified who really had the fewest first-choice votes.)
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© Copyright 2008 Richard Fobes